Understanding Concord's School Enrollment Projections

In reviewing the School District’s plans for the new middle school, I’ve repeatedly come across the projection of 900 middle school students. This figure was included in the District’s application for state building aid and in the building committee report produced by the HMFH architectural firm earlier this year. However, after investigating how this number was calculated, I’m concerned that the District may be relying on outdated and overly optimistic data.

The original projection comes from a demographic study by Davis Demographics, published in 2019 and later “republished” by HMFH Architects in 2022. The 2019 Davis study projected that middle school enrollment would bottom out in 2026-2027 and then begin to rise.

However, the Davis study’s projections have not been accurate. In 2019, Davis projected a five-year district-wide decline of 215 students, but the actual decline was nearly double that, at 408 students. This isn’t a criticism of Davis, as enrollment projections are notoriously difficult, especially given the unforeseen events of the past few years. But with the Davis projections consistently overshooting the mark, they clearly need to be revisited before they can be relied upon.

Despite this, HFMH republished the Davis projections in 2022, as if the 2026 projection was still reliable. By 2024, however, we can see that actual middle school enrollment, at 774 students, is more than 50 students below what Davis projected. Continuing to rely on a projection of 870 students by 2026—nearly 100 more students than the current enrollment—seems unrealistic, especially when middle school enrollment has been declining by at least 40 students per year for four consecutive years.

It’s important to note that the Davis projections were made before several major shifts in education trends. First, the rate of homeschooling has nearly doubled since the pandemic. Second, charter school enrollment is up 35% statewide since 2019. Third, Education Freedom Accounts (EFAs), introduced in 2021, have likely increased private school enrollment by providing partial state funding. As a result, it’s not surprising that Concord’s enrollment numbers have consistently fallen short of the Davis projections.

Despite the clear need to update the Davis estimates, the HFMH architects, in their 2022 “republication,” used the unreliable 2026 projection. On top of this figure, they then added on estimated students from housing developments in progress to inflate the number of middle school students to 900.

Simply adding potential new students to outdated Davis numbers strikes me as a crude method. For one thing, it’s likely that the Davis projections already assumed future population growth and declining household sizes in Concord. Therefore, when Davis made its original projection, they would have already accounted for periodic new housing units. Adding students from new housing developments on top of Davis' projections seems duplicative, as those new housing units were likely already factored into the original projection.

It’s also important to note that a portion of new housing units is needed on an ongoing basis to replace existing stock that periodically falls out of use. Moreover, because it’s well known that household sizes are decreasing over time, more units are regularly needed just to house the same number of people. All of this is to say that it’s overly simplistic to assume that each new housing development can be added as a new population growth not previously forecast.

Furthermore, there is another demographic study that the District appears to be minimizing. The New England Development Council (NEDC) study, published in 2022, projects a much more conservative enrollment trend, with only 734 middle school students by 2030-2031. For some reason, this more cautious projection hasn’t been included in the District’s official materials or the HMFH analysis.

Why would the School District continue to rely on the outdated Davis projections without revisiting them in light of actual trends? For example, while the 2019 Davis numbers are still included in this year's school budget appendix, there’s no mention of the significant changes that have occurred since then.

As we continue to discuss the future of the middle school, we need to ensure that we are relying on up-to-date and accurate data. The School District should thoroughly review these projections and make sure they reflect current realities before moving forward with a project of this magnitude.