Rising Costs and Declining Enrollment: A Long-Term Challenge for Concord Schools

One of the biggest challenges facing the Concord School District is the steady rise in costs, especially when compared to declining enrollment. The cost per student is skyrocketing, and this trend is not unique to Concord. School districts across the country are facing similar issues. I won’t claim there are easy solutions to contain the problem. One fundamental issue is that many of the district’s costs—whether in capital expenditures or personnel—are fixed and cannot be reduced quickly. However, if this issue isn’t addressed, the costs will spiral to unsustainable levels.

We need to be proactive, reviewing not just the current budget, but also making decisions now that can relieve pressure in the coming years.

A key concern is whether we are minimizing demographic trends, hoping that the enrollment decline will reverse itself. No one has a crystal ball, but I believe this decline is likely a long-term trend that we should not ignore. This is an issue I plan to explore in more detail soon.

For now, consider this chart I’ve put together, showing Concord School District’s cost per student over the past ten years, adjusted for inflation. To provide an apples-to-apples comparison, I’ve converted all dollar amounts to present-day values. I’ll admit, some of the budget figures were difficult to track down on the district’s website, so these numbers may not be precise to the penny. Additionally, I set the baseline at $15,000 to emphasize how steep the increase has been. Nevertheless, the overall trend is clear and undeniable. The inflation-adjusted per-student cost has risen from just over $16,000 to more than $28,000—an increase of nearly 75% in just ten years!

One thing to note is that the total cost per student I calculated is higher than the figure published on the state website. The distinction is because the state only counts "operating" costs, which specifically exclude tuition, transportation, capital and debt service. However, I am using total expenditures as shown in the school district budget, which explains the difference. I think total cost is a better measure as that is what it passed on to the taxpayers and includes all school-related expenses, regardless of how they are characterized. This does not, however, change the key point of my analysis, which focuses on the trend rather than the gross figure.

Regardless of whether using the measure of total expenses, or only current expenses, this kind of growth in per-student cost is unsustainable, and we must confront it now before the situation becomes even more dire.

For those who would prefer to review my numbers in table format, here they are. If you find any numbers that need to be adjusted, don't hesitate to let me know.

Year	Budget	Enrollment	Inflation Adjustment	Budget In '24 dollars	Inflation adjusted cost per student
15	$74,168,617	4,610	1.3297	$98,622,010	$16,089
16	$75,066,038	4,583	1.3282	$99,702,712	$16,379
17	$77,470,787	4,532	1.3116	$101,610,684	$17,094
18	$80,773,482	4,444	1.2843	$103,737,383	$18,176
19	$81,791,950	4,358	1.2530	$102,485,313	$18,768
20	$85,306,147	4,237	1.2313	$105,037,459	$20,134
21	$88,587,746	4,040	1.2163	$107,749,275	$21,928
22	$90,439,332	4,039	1.1617	$105,063,372	$22,392
23	$96,305,405	4,009	1.0757	$103,595,724	$24,022
24	$99,932,445	3,950	1.0331	$103,240,208	$25,299
25	$107,910,191	3,883	1.0000	$107,910,191	$27,790